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Is the “Periods When to Make Money” Chart Real? If you’ve spent any time researching market cycles, you’ve probably come across the famous “Periods When to Make Money”
If you’ve spent any time researching market cycles, you’ve probably come across the famous “Periods When to Make Money” chart. It is often attributed to legendary trader W.D. Gann and claims to predict market panics, buying opportunities, and periods of prosperity using repeating time cycles.
But an important question remains:
Does this chart actually work?
In this article, we’ll explore the origins of the chart, compare its predictions against real market history, and determine whether it can be trusted as a trading or investing tool.
The chart divides years into three categories:
These are said to be years when financial panics or major market declines occur.
Examples include:
These represent periods of:
These are considered:
The cycle repeats roughly every 18 years.
Many websites attribute this chart to William Delbert Gann (W.D. Gann).
Gann was one of the most famous market analysts of the early 1900s and developed several theories based on:
However, there is no verified historical evidence that this exact chart appeared in Gann’s published books or official market letters.
It is widely circulated online, but its true origin remains uncertain.
Let’s compare the chart’s predictions with actual financial history.
| Chart Prediction | Historical Reality | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 1927 | Stock market was still rising. Major crash occurred in 1929. | ❌ |
| 1945 | World War II ended. Market entered a strong bull phase. | ❌ |
| 1965 | Beginning of a long sideways market but no major panic. | ⚠️ |
| 1981 | High inflation and recession. Interest rates peaked. | ✅ |
| 1999 | Dot-com bubble reached its peak before collapsing. | ✅ |
| 2019 | Bull market continued. COVID crash happened in 2020. | ❌ |
Only 2 out of 6 predictions closely matched major market turning points.
The chart identifies these years as excellent buying opportunities.
Examples:
Let’s compare them with reality.
| Buy Year | Market Reality | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 1924 | Bull market already underway. | ❌ |
| 1931 | Market continued falling during Great Depression. | ⚠️ |
| 1942 | Excellent long-term buying opportunity. | ✅ |
| 1951 | Market already expensive. | ❌ |
| 1958 | Bull market. | ❌ |
| 1969 | Bear market beginning. | ⚠️ |
| 1978 | Before 1982 bottom. | ❌ |
| 1985 | Strong bull market already running. | ❌ |
| 1996 | Bull market. | ❌ |
| 2005 | Housing bubble before 2008 crisis. | ❌ |
| 2012 | Excellent buying opportunity. | ✅ |
| 2023 | Strong recovery after 2022 correction. | ✅ |
Only a handful of years matched significant long-term bottoms.
Market cycles naturally produce recurring peaks and troughs. If a chart marks enough dates over many decades, some will inevitably line up with real events.
This creates selection bias, where people remember the successful predictions while overlooking the many that missed.
For example:
Because markets experience periodic booms and busts, occasional alignment can happen by chance.
Many economists and market historians have observed that financial markets sometimes display long-term cycles influenced by:
An 18-year cycle has been discussed in various economic theories, particularly in relation to property markets. However, the timing and strength of these cycles vary considerably, making them unreliable as standalone forecasting tools.
History shows that major crashes are usually driven by combinations of:
These factors are far more influential than fixed calendar dates.
The chart should not be used as a standalone trading system.
Instead, it can serve as a reminder to pay closer attention to market conditions during certain periods while relying on proven tools such as:
Professional traders make decisions based on multiple forms of evidence rather than a single historical cycle.
Yes.
It offers insight into how some early market theorists thought about long-term cycles.
No.
Historical comparisons show that many of its predicted panic and buying years do not align with actual market turning points.
No.
Use it only as supplementary information and combine it with technical analysis, fundamental research, and sound risk management.
The chart exists and is widely shared, but there is no verified evidence that W.D. Gann published it in this exact form.
It matches some historical turning points but misses many others, so it should not be considered a reliable forecasting tool.
It should not be used alone. Combine any cycle-based ideas with technical analysis, macroeconomic data, and proper risk management.
Some researchers have observed long-term economic cycles, but they are not precise enough to predict exact market highs and lows.
No single method is consistently accurate. Most experienced traders combine price action, trend analysis, volume, economic indicators, and disciplined risk management rather than relying on fixed calendar cycles alone.
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